Showing posts with label stock story. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stock story. Show all posts

Friday, August 20, 2010

Man who broke the pound quits hedge fund

The billionaire investor who beat the Bank of England on Black Wednesday in 1992 and drove the U.K. out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) has given a rare glimpse of the emotional cost of the hedge fund industry as he announced plans to wind up his business.
Stanley Druckenmiller, the inspiration behind George Soros’s famous bet against the pound in 1992, surprised investors by promising to close Duquesne Capital. In a letter to clients, he blamed the impact of three decades in the world of high-stakes finance, and the pain of losing money.
“While the joy of winning for clients is immense, for me the disappointment of each interim drawdown over the years has taken a cumulative toll that I cannot continue to sustain,” wrote Druckenmiller, who has an estimated fortune of $3.5bn.
“I continue to care deeply about performing for our clients, and the stress of performing in a way that I consider to be disappointing — even if you do not share that view — persists in exacting a high emotional toll, with the result that I have concluded that this change is necessary,” he added.
Kenneth Heinz, president of Hedge Fund Research, believes that Druckenmiller’s decision shows the personal capital that he and his fellow traders invest in their businesses.
“There’s no question that fund managers and people who have been in this industry a long time are under great pressure to be successful, not only financially but also personally,” Heinz said.
This has been a tough year for macro hedge funds such as Duquesne Capital, whose trades are based on changes in the global economy. Duquesne is thought to have lost about 5% so far this year, but many rivals appear to be performing worse. Data collected this week by the Financial Times showed several big names are sitting on significant losses for the year so far, some losing up to 10% of their assets.
An invitation to play in a golf tournament this October helped to persuade Druckenmiller to step down. He rejected the opportunity, fearing it would coincide with another bout of market turmoil.
Several other hedge funds have closed this year, and Druckenmiller’s departure suggests the industry is experiencing a major shake-out. Heinz, though, is confident that hedge funds will not suffer a talent shortage. “Even the most successful hedge fund executive reaches a point in their lives when they want to step back from managing capital and do something else, but for every one there are many more people who want to come in and be as successful as Druckenmiller,” he said.
Druckenmiller founded Duquesne Capital in 1981, and it holds about $12bn in assets. He is married with three daughters, and was ranked as the 91st richest American by Forbes this year. Last year he gave $705m to a foundation that supports education, medical research and anti-poverty charities, thought to be the biggest single charitable donation by an American in 2009.
Druckenmiller was chief investment officer for Soros Fund Management on 16 September 1992 when it took a huge position against the pound, winning more than $1bn. This dragged Soros into the limelight, but Druckenmiller should have got the credit according to another Soros employee, Scott Bessent.
“What is so interesting to me was the combination of Stan Druckenmiller’s gamesmanship — Stan really understands risk/reward — and George’s ability to size trades,” Bessent recalled in a book titled Inside the House of Money.
“Make no mistake about it, shorting the pound was Stan Druckenmiller’s idea. Soros’s contribution was pushing him to take a gigantic position.”

Friday, July 2, 2010

Story of IDT

http://www.flickr.com/photos/99812497@N00/4755273400/

Date
Open
High
Low
Close
Volume
Jul 1, 2010
12.80
14.75
12.76
14.54
2,401,006
Jun 30, 2010
11.64
13.86
11.39
12.75
1,762,198
Jun 29, 2010
11.20
12.00
10.91
11.64
1,335,718
Jun 28, 2010
9.70
11.54
9.70
11.37
2,633,602
Jun 25, 2010
9.92
9.92
9.20
9.79
2,330,184
Jun 24, 2010
10.00
10.09
9.65
9.90
367,645
Jun 23, 2010
9.87
10.00
9.26
10.00
239,412
Jun 22, 2010
10.28
10.46
9.62
9.92
285,987
Jun 21, 2010
10.89
10.94
10.31
10.31
315,535
Jun 18, 2010
11.05
11.05
10.31
10.63
129,722
Jun 17, 2010
10.93
11.38
10.74
10.87
205,548
Jun 16, 2010
11.10
11.10
10.43
10.87
263,455
Jun 15, 2010
10.82
11.20
10.55
11.10
366,953
Jun 14, 2010
10.51
10.95
10.27
10.57
371,284
Jun 11, 2010
8.78
10.36
8.71
10.26
478,822
Jun 10, 2010
8.74
9.00
8.37
8.40
183,997
Jun 9, 2010
8.81
8.81
8.45
8.48
45,485
Jun 8, 2010
8.77
8.92
8.46
8.61
53,717
Jun 7, 2010
8.76
9.11
8.66
8.77
120,134
This the story of stock IDT from last month. The stock moved 1000% from last years fall from 1.59 low to a high of 15.15 today. But the recent movement from  june 25 show some interesting observations. There is a tremendous increase in volume from 3 hundred thousand to 2 million shares a day. this movement usually mean a big investor like a hedge fund invested in this stock. And after this there is usually a 30 % gain in the couple of day. The rally moved aggressively even when the overall market was slumping. 
The rally after the major volume change usually is for 3 days and if it extends to the 5th day, it is a little over extended,it has to come down towards the 30 MA. Any way, shorting this stock above the 30 MA is not advisable. One can purchase this stock after the first pull back. The first pull back is after the first series of stock rally in the stocks movement upwards. The stock moved from 9-15, this is the first rally, there will also be the first pull back after the first rally. If one missed buying the stock in the first rally at around 11or 12  then  
one has to wait for the first pull back. The First pull back is usually still above the 30 day average. The other problem in this case is that the Mr. Market is bear. Every one is selling. Good time to short the over all market but to buy and hold this IDT , it should be a really good energy stock upwards. There is a lot of energy in this stock which is signaled by the 5 day first rally. 

First pull back is a good time to buy. At around 12.5. 
Today as I predicted IDT fell. This is because some of the people who got in later on 28,29,30 june and 1 july want to book profits. But the major investors are still holding the stock. Reading the volume indicator is the key to success.
People may sell this stock for 1 or 2 days till  it comes down to 12.5 or around that price, then there will be another rally. Also things depend on over all market conditions to some extent. If every one selling  stocks this stock will not move idly alone. The over market conditions affect even this stock.