Friday, July 2, 2010

Story of IDT

http://www.flickr.com/photos/99812497@N00/4755273400/

Date
Open
High
Low
Close
Volume
Jul 1, 2010
12.80
14.75
12.76
14.54
2,401,006
Jun 30, 2010
11.64
13.86
11.39
12.75
1,762,198
Jun 29, 2010
11.20
12.00
10.91
11.64
1,335,718
Jun 28, 2010
9.70
11.54
9.70
11.37
2,633,602
Jun 25, 2010
9.92
9.92
9.20
9.79
2,330,184
Jun 24, 2010
10.00
10.09
9.65
9.90
367,645
Jun 23, 2010
9.87
10.00
9.26
10.00
239,412
Jun 22, 2010
10.28
10.46
9.62
9.92
285,987
Jun 21, 2010
10.89
10.94
10.31
10.31
315,535
Jun 18, 2010
11.05
11.05
10.31
10.63
129,722
Jun 17, 2010
10.93
11.38
10.74
10.87
205,548
Jun 16, 2010
11.10
11.10
10.43
10.87
263,455
Jun 15, 2010
10.82
11.20
10.55
11.10
366,953
Jun 14, 2010
10.51
10.95
10.27
10.57
371,284
Jun 11, 2010
8.78
10.36
8.71
10.26
478,822
Jun 10, 2010
8.74
9.00
8.37
8.40
183,997
Jun 9, 2010
8.81
8.81
8.45
8.48
45,485
Jun 8, 2010
8.77
8.92
8.46
8.61
53,717
Jun 7, 2010
8.76
9.11
8.66
8.77
120,134
This the story of stock IDT from last month. The stock moved 1000% from last years fall from 1.59 low to a high of 15.15 today. But the recent movement from  june 25 show some interesting observations. There is a tremendous increase in volume from 3 hundred thousand to 2 million shares a day. this movement usually mean a big investor like a hedge fund invested in this stock. And after this there is usually a 30 % gain in the couple of day. The rally moved aggressively even when the overall market was slumping. 
The rally after the major volume change usually is for 3 days and if it extends to the 5th day, it is a little over extended,it has to come down towards the 30 MA. Any way, shorting this stock above the 30 MA is not advisable. One can purchase this stock after the first pull back. The first pull back is after the first series of stock rally in the stocks movement upwards. The stock moved from 9-15, this is the first rally, there will also be the first pull back after the first rally. If one missed buying the stock in the first rally at around 11or 12  then  
one has to wait for the first pull back. The First pull back is usually still above the 30 day average. The other problem in this case is that the Mr. Market is bear. Every one is selling. Good time to short the over all market but to buy and hold this IDT , it should be a really good energy stock upwards. There is a lot of energy in this stock which is signaled by the 5 day first rally. 

First pull back is a good time to buy. At around 12.5. 
Today as I predicted IDT fell. This is because some of the people who got in later on 28,29,30 june and 1 july want to book profits. But the major investors are still holding the stock. Reading the volume indicator is the key to success.
People may sell this stock for 1 or 2 days till  it comes down to 12.5 or around that price, then there will be another rally. Also things depend on over all market conditions to some extent. If every one selling  stocks this stock will not move idly alone. The over market conditions affect even this stock.




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