Friday, May 20, 2011

ARUN: day trading

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Debt/Equity Ratio0.00
Gross Margin69.12%
Net Profit Margin-1.73%
Shares Outstanding100.80 Mil
Market Cap3.3 Bil
Institutional Ownership86.50%
Stock went down by 15 percent. I was thinking the total volume of shares floating is 100 million. Today's volume is already 10 M. Heavy selling. Unless new buyers come in, this stock will go down. 
1. Should have shorted at day opening at 8 percent down. But its hard to guess, if the 8 percent down was temporary and it will recover in the mid day or it is permanent with heavy volume like today. 
But the ration total shares/ today volume is approximately equal to the percentage of price down. I mean only during heavy volume days or heavy buying days. 
Stock hitting resistance at 27.5 already 15 % down. They can drop more too depending on how much speculative accumulation of stock happened before.  Need to study these models further, that fall down from the top with heavy volume. Usually a signal for down trend to begin. Need to study the single day chart. Same thing happened to OPEN a few days back. 

I should have documented it here. 

OPEN dropped to 87 on that big sell day from around 92. But one should not bet that the stock will go up for sure the next day. It usually does, but there are cases like HEES, where the stock kept dropping and dropping.

Print chat

HEES dropped from 20 to 16. thats like 20 percent down. then a small rise then dropped gain. 

I am sure there are a bunch of short sellers today on ARUN and in case on is in a wrong position, the best time to sell during day trading is during the closing time because, short sellers are covering and also some new buyers want to accumulate. 


Gade said...

all my estimates of stock going up at closing were wrong. There was no stock moving up due to covering of short sale. There was a movement couple of hours before closing to 28.3 from 27.7. That is it. After that the stock closed at 27.10

So when it comes to day trading one cannot estimate what is going to happen. There are too many unknowns.

The best thing is to use the Moving average. That is the savior and guide. If one follows it meticulously and bases ones decisions on it one will never lose too much money. One may be in a wrong position but one can get out of it if one gets out of the position when the stock crosses the MA of the day.

Day Trading Strategy said...


The above graphs are about the share rate of stock exchange, the brokers are more serious about them. They want to get every minutes news and can try to calculate about the future of your share bond. Thanks a lot...