Thursday, November 4, 2010

An observation on stock rally and quarterly results-Dip will come wait for it

When the stock is on the 30 day MA and if there is good news there is great possibility that the stock will rise high during the quarterly results period.

Some stock rise 20-25 percent or more even before the results are announced and these stocks are at least 10-15 percent above the 30 day MA. One has to be avoid buying stocks at that point because, like today experience with PPO, the stock rose 20% on expectations of more profits and fell down from 36 to a low of 28. 5 and closed at 32.6. Now at 32.6 it is on the 30 day MA. This is a good point to buy the stock in rally.

Always, one needs to develop patience to buy stocks only when they come down near to the 30 day MA or when they are consolidating. Some times the consolidation takes a couple of weeks. One has to be patient and wait. Buying and selling with impatience causes senseless losses.

Always, always, buy during consolidation and wait for a couple of week to rise, or buy on the dip to the 30 day MA for a rallying stock. Every stock no matter what has to come back to the 30 day MA. That is the time to buy. One can also buy when the stock is very close to the 30 day MA and finished a minor correction. Even that is a good point to enter. But not on the top before consolidation, this is the worst time to buy the stock.

To minimize risks one has to make it a habit to buy at the right points.
RVBD was a good example, the stock moved from 44, right on the red line, 30 day MA, to 59 now in 2 weeks. This was a perfect missed opportunity of 30 percent.  Even other stocks like TIBX, were consolidating at 18.5 for a couple of weeks. Now it rose to 20.5. One has to buy during consolidation and be patient.
Do something else, do not tinker with stocks, it always causes losses and transactions costs rise.

Anyway got into PPO at 32.25. Expecting the stock to rise to 40 in 2 months. Lets see, its a big bet of the month.

I got into HS and ENDP at the wrong points and got losses. Now got into PPO at the right time. One should not get emotional, one has to wait for the dip, with cash loaded. Dip will come. Wait for it.

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